Posted by: mulrickillion | December 27, 2011

North Korea: "One Goes Into a Crisis with the Leaders One Has"

By Taylor Dinerman, Hudson New York, Dec 26, 2011 —

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), to give it its official title, has nuclear weapons, long range missiles, a starving populace, a corrupt government, an exceptionally nasty secret police, a disintegrating army, and powerful, well armed neighbors. This brew is a recipe, not just for instability but disaster. The death of its hereditary dictator, Kim Jong Il, on December 17, 2011, is one of those events that make informed observers of the international scene nervous, to say the least.

With any luck, the leaders of South Korea and China will be able to get together with the US, Japan and Russia and agree on some informal, minimal guidelines that will keep the peace and help maintain some kind security in the region, as the factions inside the Pyongyang government — the gangsters — sort out their new arrangements and divide the loot.

A desperate, hungry and freezing population, however, may not give anyone time to sort things out in a nice, orderly way. A year ago, no one predicted that the suicide of Tunisian fruit vendor would lead to the collapse of multiple Arab dictatorships. The Dear Leader’s death at a moment when his supposed successor , his 28-year old son, Kim Jong Un, has failed to consolidate his position, raises the possibility of a power struggle inside the North Korean Communist Party.

A nasty fight inside the Party — with pro- and anti- Kim Jong Un factions going at each other, and all sides trying to convince the Chinese that their friends they would do a better job looking out for China’s interests than their rivals’ — could destroy what little legitimacy the regime has left.

The totalitarian propaganda put out by the DPRK government has been so overdone for so long, that one suspects that it has lost its ability to convince the majority of North Korea’s citizens of anything at all. Hungry people, who have been falsely promised food for years on end, have no reason to believe a single word coming from those who made these promises in the first place..

Although this contempt by the North’s people for their ruler could set the stage for massive unrest, or even civil war, normally an oppressed, hungry, propagandized population is not one that will rise up, even against a weakened tyrannical system; but nothing about North Korea is normal.

A situation similar to East Germany’s in 1989, might develop: there had been no plan to tear down the wall that separated Berlin from West to keep the East Germans in, and there were no dissident leaders to call on the East Berliners to wreck this symbol of Communist power. . . .

North Korea: "One Goes Into a Crisis with the Leaders One Has" :: Hudson New York

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