Posted by: mulrickillion | October 27, 2011

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 — Table of Contents

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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook:
Middle East and Central Asia

October 2011
©2011 International Monetary Fund

>>Full Text

  • Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan Presentation:

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances—key growth drivers in 2010—are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth.

Contents

Acknowledgments

Assumptions and Conventions

Country and Regional Groupings

World Economic Outlook

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan(MENAP)

MENAP Highlights

1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Benefiting from High Oil Prices amid Growing Risks

Gradual Recovery Continues

Fiscal Expansion Continues, with New Vigor in the Social Sector

Fiscal, External Balances Improve despite Higher Spending

Financial Conditions Point to Increased Regional, Global Risk

Banks Gain Strength, but Credit Recovery Remains Subdued

Infl ationary Pressures Modest amid High Commodity Prices

Echoes of 2008, but with Key Differences in Risk Tolerance

Designing Fiscal Policy for the Long Haul

Monetary Policy for Stability and Growth

Structural Reforms Should Continue

Annex 1.1. Medium-Term Outlook on the Production of Oil and Natural Gas

2. MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence

Sharp Downturn to Last through 2012

Infl ation Remains Stable as Food and Fuel Subsidies Rise

External Balances Are Worsening

Financial Markets Have Taken a Hit

Spending Escalates with Universal Subsidies Rising Sharply

Fiscal Deficits Increasingly Financed from Domestic Sources

The Road Ahead Is Challenging

The Way Forward to Inclusive Growth

Annex 2.1. MENA Oil Importers: Addressing Informality and Promoting Inclusion

Annex 2.2. A Closer Look at Governance and the Business Environment in MENAP

Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)

CCA Highlights

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery

Recovery Gaining Speed

Growth Outlook Broadly Positive, but with Downside Risks

Infl ation Remains Elevated in Several Countries

Policy Options and Challenges

Oil and Gas Importers

Oil and Gas Exporters

Medium-Term Challenges: Jobs and Inclusive Growth

Annex 3.1. Commodity Price Inflation and Monetary Policy in the CCA

Boxes

1.1
Libyan Revolution: Economic Impact and Challenges Ahead

1.2
Sudan and South Sudan: Beyond the Breakup

1.3
Labor Markets in the GCC

2.1
Mitigating the Impact of High Energy Prices: Oil Importers as Commodity Exporters

2.2
Global Linkages and Regional Spillovers from the Slowdown in Europe

2.3
MENAP Oil Importers: Domestic Fuel Pricing

2.4
Who Benefits from Energy Subsidies? Evidence from Jordan and Mauritania

3.1
Regional Spillovers from Russia’s Economic Recovery

3.2
Remittances and Tax Revenues in CCA Countries

3.3
Unemployment in the South Caucasus: The Challenge of Making Growth More Inclusive

3.4
Business Environment and Governance in the CCA

Figures

1.1
On the Back of High Oil Prices, the Recovery Continues

1.2
Strong Fluctuations in Oil Sector GDP, Non-Oil Remains Steady

1.3
Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits Have Been Widening in Most Countries

1.4
Most Oil Exporters Have Ramped Up Spending

1.5
Despite Higher Spending, Fiscal Balances Improve in Most Countries

1.6
Current Account Balances Improve Further

1.7
Sovereign Risk Levels Still Elevated

1.8
GCC Countries: Spillover Coefficient from Financial Distress in Other MENA Countries

1.9
Stock Market Indices Still Not Back to Pre-Lehman Levels

1.10
Financial Stability Improving, but Vulnerabilities Still Present

1.11
GCC Credit Growth Is Still Mostly Subdued … Although Deposits Are Picking Up

1.12
Some Inflationary Pressures in the Oil Exporters … But Inflation Still Subdued in the GCC

1.13
Fiscal Break-Even Oil Prices Have Been Creeping Upward

1.14
International Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity

1.15
High Loan Concentration in MENA

2.1
Real GDP Growth Stalls in 2011

2.2
Private and Public Investment Have Declined

2.3
Real GDP Growth Forecasts Revised Downward

2.4
Infl ationary Pressures Muted

2.5
Real Policy Interest Rates Near Zero

2.6
Oil Import Bills Rising

2.7
MENAP Oil Importers Tourism Activity

2.8
International Capital Market Issuance

2.9
Stock Market Indices Lower

2.10
Sovereign Bond Spreads Higher

2.11
Higher Expenditures on Subsidies and Transfers

2.12
Fiscal Deficit Forecasts Revised Up

2.13
Public Debt Stable, Real Rates Close to Zero

2.14
All Firms Are Not Created Equal

3.1
Exports of Goods

3.2
Remittance Inflows

3.3
Real GDP

3.4
Food Price Inflation

3.5
Headline CPI Inflation

3.6
Fiscal Balance

3.7
Headline Inflation

3.8
Core Inflation

3.9
Current Account Balance

3.10
Net Foreign Direct Investment

3.11
Oil and Gas Exporters: Non-Oil Fiscal Balance

3.12
Headline Inflation

3.13
Core Inflation

Table

1.1
New Spending Measures Announced in 2011

Statistical Appendix

1
Real GDP Growth

2
Nominal GDP

3
Oil Exporters: Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth

4
Oil Exporters: Crude Oil Production and Exports

5
Consumer Price Inflation

6
Core Consumer Price Inflation

7
Broad Money Growth

8
General Government Fiscal Balance

9
General Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants

10
Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance

11
Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Revenue

12
General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending

13
Total Government Gross Debt

14
Selected MENAP Countries: Total Government Net Debt

15
Exports of Goods and Services

16
Imports of Goods and Services

17
Current Account Balance (Billion U.S. dollars)

18
Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)

19
Gross Official Reserves

20
Total Gross External Debt

21
Capital Adequacy Ratios

22
Return on Assets

23
Nonperforming Loans

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 — Table of Contents

>>See also Press Release: IMF Sees Varied Outlook for Mideast, with Oil-Importing Countries Facing Continued Economic Pressures

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