Photo Source: Richard Posner of the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago. John Gress/Reuters /Landov.

In a recent interview with NPR, the renowned conservative legal thinker Federal Judge Richard Posner, who is a 1981 President Ronald Reagan appointee to the 7th U.S. Court of Appeals, spoke candidly about the crisis of the new Republican Party and conservative thinking in America.

Judge Posner spoke of the modern Republican Party as a crisis arising from a “real deterioration in conservative thinking” that has moved him away from a Republican Party base, which he described as a “crowd of lunatics.”

For instance, when addressing the right-winger attacks against Chief Justice John Roberts’ opinion upholding the Affordable Care Act, he said,

Because if you put [yourself] in his position … what’s he supposed to think? That he finds his allies to be a bunch of crackpots? Does that help the conservative movement? I mean, what would you do if you were Roberts? All the sudden you find out that the people you thought were your friends have turned against you, they despise you, they mistreat you, they leak to the press. What do you do? Do you become more conservative? Or do you say, ‘What am I doing with this crowd of lunatics?’ Right? Maybe you have to re-examine your position.

According to a recent Slate article, Judge Posner also called out conservative Justice Antonin Scalia  for his combative dissent in the recent Arizona immigration case, in which he specifically attacked President Barack Obama’s immigration policies. Posner wrote that it “wouldn’t surprise [him] if Justice Scalia’s opinion were quoted in campaign ads.”

All of this, according to  his NPR interview,  led Judge Posner to express exasperation with the modern Republican Party, while also confessing that he has become “less conservative” as a result.

For those unaware, Judge Posner is also a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, and has authored dozens of books on law and economics. In 2000, the Journal of Legal Studies identified him as the most-cited legal scholar of the 20th century.

Sources:

Nina Totenberg, Federal Judge Richard Posner: The GOP Has Made Me Less Conservative, NPR, July 8, 2012.

Ashley Portero, Reagan-Appointed Judge Richard Posner Calls ‘Goofy’ Republicans A ‘Crowd of Lunatics’, International Business Times, July 6, 2012.

Richard A. Posner, Supreme Court Year in Review, Slate, June 27, 2012.

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See also The Republican Conundrum

All Rights Reserved by M. Ulric Killion, 2012.

Photo Source: (FILES) In a file photo taken on on March 9, 2012, Bo Xilai, Communist Party secretary of Chongqing attends the third plenary session of of the National People’s Congress’s (NPC) annual session at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (LIU JIN/AFP/Getty Images) via Gu Kailai, Bo Xilai’s Wife, Has Confessed To Neil Heywood Killing: Japanese Newspaper, Huffington Post, June 22, 2012.

In the continuing drama of the mystery surrounding the murder of Neil Heywood, a Japanese Newspaper, the The Asahi Shimbun, reported that Gu Kailai, the wife of Bo Xilai, confessed to the Neil Heywood killing.

According to The Asahi Shimbun,

Gu Kailai told Chinese investigators she killed Neil Heywood, who was found dead at a hotel in Chongqing, China, in November 2011. Communist party sources told the Ashi that Gu killed Heywood over her corrupt business practices–she worried that he would “reveal illegal remittances of billions of dollars abroad that he allegedly helped organize for her.”

In April 2012, it was earlier reported that Heywood was poisoned after threatening to expose Gu’s money moves–a parallel finding to the Japanese newspaper’s Friday report.

Source: Gu Kailai, Bo Xilai’s Wife, Has Confessed To Neil Heywood Killing: Japanese Newspaper, Huffington Post, June 22, 2012.

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See also

• Bo and the Macau Connection
• Bo purged by Chinese leadership
• The Wang Lijun Mystery: Update No. 3 – Bo Xilai …
• The Wang Lijun Mystery: Update No. 2
• The Wang Lijun Mystery: Update
• Wang Lijun, Crime Fighter, Is Said to Have Tried to Defect

All Rights Reserved by M. Ulric Killion, 2012.

Photo Source: African expatriates protesting the deaf of a fellow expatriate in the Yuexiu district of Guangzhou, PRC; 广州一外籍男子与人打斗后死亡 外国人围聚派出所堵路, Ifeng.com News, June 19, 2012.

Today, in Guangzhou, China, there was a clash between African expatriates and Chinese police officers in the Yuexiu district.

After reading the article, I was reminded of both an ongoing immigration crisis in China, especially concerning expats from some African countries in Guangzhou, and occasional reports of abuse of some prisoners in police custody in different parts of China.

The standoff involved a dispute about a fare for a taxi (by motorcycle) between a Chinese citizen and an African expat.

The police officer(s) took both to the local Yuexiu police station, and reportedly the African expat collapsed and ultimately died.

Yuexiu police officers did dispatch for medical assistance to help this man.

Photo Source: African expatriates protesting the deaf of a fellow expatriate in the Yuexiu district of Guangzhou, PRC, as one protester is shown holding up a sign that reads, “Give us the body”; 广州一外籍男子与人打斗后死亡 外国人围聚派出所堵路, Ifeng.com News, June 19, 2012.

While an investigation will take place, the expats in the photos must suspect some sort of foul play, because, in one of the photos, an expat is holding a sign that says, “Give Us The Dead Body.” 

Otherwise, the lack of information about what exactly occurred inside the Yuexiu police station notwithstanding, it is difficult to imagine that some sort of police abuse arose simply out of a dispute about the fare for a taxi.

Finally, one reasonably suspects that the investigation of this incident will more fully explain the cause of death.

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See Ifeng.com News report:

广州一外籍男子与人打斗后死亡 外国人围聚派出所堵路

2012年06月19日 19:28
来源：人民网

人民网北京6月19日电（记者耿聪）记者今日从广州公安官网微博获悉，19日下午，一些外籍人员在广园西路聚集并堵塞道路交通，越秀警方及时采取果断措施，依法妥善处置了该起事件。

广州越秀警方今天(6月19日)向媒体通报：19日下午，一些外籍人员在广园西路聚集并堵塞道路交通，越秀警方及时采取果断措施，依法妥善处置了该起事件。

6月18日13时许，一名外籍男士在广园西路搭乘电动自行车，与车主因车费纠纷引发打斗，双方随后被警方带回矿泉派出所作进一步调查。17时许，该外籍男士突然昏迷，警方即通知“120”派医务人员到场抢救，最终经抢救无效死亡，警方正依法立案开展侦查. . . .

Source: http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/detail_2012_06/19/15418726_0.shtml

All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion, 2012.

Photo Source: “Trade and aid are expected to top discussions during the China-Africa Summit…”; “Export-Import Bank of China extended $12.5 billion more in loans to sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade than the World Bank, Fitch Ratings said. State-owned EXIM lent about $67.2 billion to the world’s poorest region between 2001 and 2010 compared with the World Bank’s $54.7 billion…,” Mike Cohen, China’s EXIM Lends More to Sub-Sahara Africa Than World Bank, Bloomberg, December 28, 2011; cnsphoto/defensepak.forum.

The U.S. Congress is presently struggling with the issue of whether to renew the charter of the Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im Bank). Since its inception in 1934, the issue of renewing the charter of the Ex-Im Bank has hardly been a controversial one, as the U.S. Congress routinely and without controversy would renew its charter. This year, however, the renewal issue is causing a controversy, though surprisingly not along partisan lines. Rather, the center of the controversy is a division within the Republican Party.

According to the Associated Press, “In the House, Republicans are torn between their business allies who are strong Ex-Im backers and conservative groups which say the agency should be eliminated.” This controversy and division within the Republican Party also parallels diverging positions in the aircraft industry or trade in large civil aircraft, as seen in the difference between The Boeing Company (Boeing), which is a beneficiary of Ex-Im Bank financing, and Delta Air Lines that maintains Ex-Im Bank financing adversely affects its bottom line.

For those unaware, the Ex-Im Bank generally serves the critical role of helping to finance American companies’ overseas sales such as trade in large civil aircraft. In terms of global trade, the complaints of Delta Air Lines notwithstanding, for the U.S. economy, the renewal of the bank’s charter presents an economic imperative that will ultimately foster economic growth, productivity in manufacturing, jobs, and other positive amenities.

The role of the Ex-Im Bank and its potential to aid in the financing of overseas sales is important, as especially seen in the case of the European Union (EU) and its aircraft industry (i.e., trade in large civil aircraft). As Boeing earlier warned, as reported by the Financial Times, “Airlines will have to make greater use of the bond markets to pay for aircraft because European banks are pulling back from commercial aircraft financing.”

The reality of the present crisis of the large civil aircraft industry, as noted by Boeing Capital Corporation, which is the U.S. aircraft manufacture’s financial arm, airlines are now more likely to lease, rather than buy, new large civil aircraft, which is a direct consequence owing to a reduction in the availability of bank lending. According to Boeing Capital Corporation,

BCC expects that 10 per cent – or $10bn – of the financing for the 2012 deliveries will come from airlines and lessors tapping capital markets, mainly though bond rather than equity issuance. BCC estimates only 5 per cent of financing will have come from capital markets in 2011.

Meanwhile, BCC expects commercial bank lending for aircraft purchases to shrink as a proportion of aircraft financing, from 25 per cent in 2011 to 21 per cent in 2012. The absolute amount is due to increase slightly, from $19bn in 2011 to $20bn in 2012.

The benefits of an export-import bank, however, are subject to the world trading system and its rules, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM Agreement). It is notably that both Boeing and the EU’s Airbus have been subject to charges of violating the WTO’s SCM agreement, by receiving unfair subsidies.

For example, in March 2012, the WTO upheld a ruling that Boeing received “at least” $5.3 billion of unfair subsidies between 1989 and 2006, while also agreeing with Airbus that the effect of these subsidies or financial support was greater than their face value, as measurable in light of their “particularly pervasive” nature. There is also the pending WTO case against Airbus and its unfair subsidies. In April 2012, a WTO dispute panel agreed to further examine the EU’s compliance in the Airbus case, including an issue of new unfair subsidies.

While aircraft industry trending leans toward leasing rather than buying large civil aircraft, there are, however, exceptions to the rule such as the Development Bank of Japan (DBJ or Kabushiki-gaisha Nippon-seisaku-toshi-ginko), which is not pulling back from aircraft financing as seen with some European banks, and a growing participation in the market by some insurance companies.

Then there is the often overlooked potential role of the Ex-Im Bank in both international financing and international diplomacy. An exemplary example of such a role is the case of China and its export-import bank, which is the Export Import Bank of China (China Eximbank or Zhongguo Jinchukou Yinhang).

For instance, and quoting from an earlier article, China’s Eximbank earlier granted Belgrade a billion euro ($1.3 billon) loan to upgrade two power plants and, in the spring of 2010, commence the construction of a bride over the Danube River. Dusan Reljib, from the EU External Relations division of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, described the Chinese presence as “gathering momentum right across the region. ‘The Chinese are in Slovenia, in Macedonia, they’re exporting buses to Skopje, they’re talking to Croatia about transport facilities, harbors, airports, railway connections,’ he said ‘and they’ve been talking to the Greeks about leasing possibilities in Athens harbor.’”

As Reljib also observed,

“With very little direct foreign investment coming into the region, tight government budgets and unemployment rates on the rise again, he says Balkan states need and welcome China’s money, which comes with grace periods, generously low interest rates and very few strings attached. ‘The Chinese do not attach economic or political conditions to their loans,’ Reljic said. ‘In a way, cheap Chinese money is an alternative to commercially expensive Western money or politically expensive money from the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank.’”

China’s creative international financing employs in many parts of the world, such as the regions of the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Africa.

In this respect, and demonstrating a broader importance of export-import banks, it may simply be an issue of a Beijing-form of creative international financing rather than a familiar Washington-form of capitalism.

In the end, a crisis looms because the charter of the Ex-Im Bank is set to expire at the end of this month, and there is also the issue of the Ex-Im Bank’s statutory lending cap of $100 billion. One reasonably suspects that the U.S. Congress will renew the Ex-Im Bank’s charter, and attempt to adjust its lending cap. This is because the role of the Ex-Im Bank rightly enjoys bi-partisan support, as it also actually aids in the promotion of competitiveness in manufacturing, economic growth, and world trade.

Sources:

Jim Abrams, Ex-Im’s Future Caught Up in Congressional Fight, Associated Press, May 7, 2012.

Andrew Parker, Banks withdraw from aircraft financing, Financial Times, December 6, 2011.

Cathy Buyck, WTO upholds Boeing subsidies ruling: Airbus & Boeing both claim victory, Air Transport World, March 13, 2012.

World Trade Organization, Dispute Settlement – Dispute panel to examine EU compliance in Airbus case, WTO News, April 13, 2012.

World Trade Organization, SUBSIDIES AND COUNTERVAILING MEASURES: OVERVIEW – Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (“SCM Agreement”); May 7, 2012.

M. Ulric Killion, Post-global Financial crisis: The measure of the “Beijing consensus” as a variety of capitalisms, MPRA Paper 26382, University Library of Munich, Germany, 2010.

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See also Republican Conundrum

All Rights Reserved M. Ulric Killion, 2012.

Will Taiwan Be Secure in the Emerging Asian Order?

Wednesday, May 9
12:00 – 1:30 PM

During Ma Ying-jeou’s presidency, the Republic of China on Taiwan has experienced an unprecedented expansion of its commercial and other ties with the Chinese mainland. After a hard-fought election campaign to win a second term in office, President Ma has vowed to continue improving relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the interests of greater cross-Straits trade, stability, and normalization.

Yet at home and internationally, President Ma’s administration has faced sharp and mounting criticism that his policies and overtures to the PRC have damaged Taiwan’s sovereignty and security—as well as jeopardized the present U.S.-backed security arrangements across East Asia. This criticism is coming at a time of increasing uncertainty about the stability and predictability of the one-party regime on the Chinese mainland, and also at a time of growing tension across the region caused by Beijing’s maritime claims against the Phillipines and Japan.

What role will Taiwan play in these disputes, and what can we expect from President Ma’s second term? Will Taiwan become a liability for U.S. security strategy in the region, or will it become a strategic asset in U.S. efforts to promote peace and prosperity in East Asia?

To discuss President Ma’s security strategy and the international debate surrounding it, Hudson Institute will host Dr. Kwei-Bo Huang. Currently a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Dr. Huang is an Associate Professor of Diplomacy and Director of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the College of International Affairs, National Chengchi University. He previously served, from 2009-2011, as Chairman of the Research and Planning Committee in Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Dr. Huang will be joined by Charles Horner, a Senior Sellow at Hudson Institute, and by Dr. John Lee, a Visiting Fellow at Hudson Institute and Associate Professor at Sydney University.

Click here to register for this event.

Lunch will be provided.

This event will be streamed live on Hudson’s website: www.hudson.org/WatchLive.

Questions can be submitted via Twitter: @HudsonInstitute.

Betsy and Walter Stern Conference Center
Hudson Institute
1015 15th St, NW
6th Floor
Washington, DC 20005
[Map]

www.hudson.org

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See also

• US academic sees little progress in ties
• DPP doesn’t need to change: Jacobs
• Why Ma Won the Elections and What’s Next for Taiwan and China
• 2012 ELECTIONS: Lee Teng-hui to endorse DPP ticket
• ECFA and the Elections: Implications for Cross-Strait Relations
• Taiwan, Israel to set up free-trade pact working group
• 2012 ELECTIONS: Watch group calls for spying probe
• 2012 ELECTIONS: Lee accuses Ma of ‘distorting history’
• DPP’s Cross-Strait Policy Consistent with “Status Quo”

Photo Source: A woman holds up a sign in support of Obamacare in front of the Supreme Court in Washington as the Court debates the constitutionality of the health law on March 27, 2012. Health reform is critical for women; AP/Charles Dharapak.

By Jessica Arons*, Center for American Progress, May 2, 2012 –

>>Download this report (pdf)
>>Download the executive summary (pdf)
>>Read the report in your web browser (Scribd)

The Affordable Care Act, the Obama administration’s signature piece of legislation that reforms our nation’s costly and unfair health insurance market, is the greatest legislative advancement for women’s health in a generation. “Obamacare,” as the new law is more commonly known, holds the promise of ensuring coverage of preventive and essential services for women, eliminating gender discrimination by health insurance companies, and making health insurance more available and affordable for women and their families.

Yet all the recent talk about the constitutionality of the new law, culminating in oral arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court in March, makes it easy to forget the many lives at stake if the Affordable Care Act gets struck down—especially women’s lives.

What would it mean for millions of women and their families if the Supreme Court struck down Obamacare? It would mean losing health insurance coverage guarantees that have already been put into place. And it would mean causing women to miss out on the protections that are slated to be implemented in less than two years. This would translate into poorer health for tens of millions of women, alongside more costly care for them and their families, affecting the lives of untold Americans.

Thanks to Obamacare, more than 45 million women have already taken advantage of recommended preventive services, including mammograms, pap smears, prenatal care, well-baby care, and well-child care with no cost sharing such as co-pays and deductibles. Starting this August, millions more will be able to obtain contraception, annual well-woman care (a visit with a gynecologist), screening for gestational diabetes, breastfeeding counseling and supplies, and screening for sexually transmitted infections, including HIV and the Human papillomavirus—again at no extra cost.

In addition, women will no longer encounter discrimination in the health insurance market in the form of lost maternity coverage, higher premiums due to their gender, and denials of coverage for gender-related pre-existing conditions. Indeed, close to 9 million women will gain coverage for maternity care in the individual market starting in 2014. And provisions in the new health law that protect everyone will especially benefit women, who utilize the health care system the most.

In short, Obamacare will increase health insurance coverage for women, lower their health care costs, and end the worst insurance industry abuses against them.

Despite the clear benefits for women, opponents of health reform have taken their cause to the U.S. Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments debating the constitutionality of the law in March. The nine Supreme Court justices will rule on the matter in June. Although the case should be open and shut (see box on page 4), the result is unfortunately far from guaranteed.

Opponents of Obamacare also threaten to repeal the law if they can gain full control of Congress and the White House in the upcoming election in November. But for the time being, all eyes are on an extremely divided and increasingly conservative Supreme Court, which sadly has in recent years demonstrated little regard for precedent.

For women and their families, the Affordable Care Act is not a theoretical concept— it is a lifeline. Attacks on Obamacare are attacks on women’s health and well-being. If the Supreme Court decides to strike down any or all of this law, then it is women who will suffer the most. Women cannot afford to lose this highstakes lawsuit because they cannot afford to lose the benefits of this landmark health reform law. This paper demonstrates just how important Obamacare is for women in our nation today and into the future. (see box)

*Jessica Arons is Director of the Women’s Health and Rights Program at the Center for American Progress.

“This material [Women and Obamacare - What’s at Stake for Women if the Supreme Court Strikes Down the Affordable Care Act] was published by the Center for American Progress” (online).

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See also Republican Conundrum

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) –

Peru Country Analysis – April 2012

Last Updated: May 1, 2012 — Download Full Country Analysis Brief

Peru is currently a net oil importer and a natural gas exporter, but rising exploration and development may lead to increased production and exports of both oil and gas in the next few years. Despite a decline in crude oil production, Peru’s total oil liquids output has increased in recent years as a result of the rising production of natural gas liquids. Peru is self-sufficient in natural gas and began exporting LNG in 2010.

For more information on Peru’s energy sector, visit http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=PE

Background

Peru is currently a net oil importer and a natural gas exporter, but rising exploration and development may lead to increased production and exports of both oil and gas in the next few years.

Increases in the production of natural gas and the opening of South America’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant have enabled Peru to become a natural gas exporter despite rising domestic consumption. Peru has the potential to be a significant producer of both natural gas and petroleum due to its untapped reserves and rising investments by international companies. New government policies aimed at attracting foreign investment may result in increased production for both export and domestic use. In addition, other policies to increase energy security by promoting energy efficiency and by using natural gas and hydropower resources for electricity generation have been implemented.

Oil

Despite a decline in crude oil production, Peru’s total oil liquids output has increased in recent years as a result of the rising production of natural gas liquids.

According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Peru had 582 million barrels of proven oil reserves in January 2012, up from 533 million barrels in January 2011. Peru has added approximately 50 million barrels of reserves in each of the past two years.

Much of Peru’s proven oil reserves are onshore, and the majority of these onshore reserves are in the Amazon region. Eleven important new hydrocarbon discoveries have occurred in just the past few years. In 2005, Peru’s first offshore oil discovery occurred in the San Pedro well in Block Z-2B, where light oil was found. The largest recent discoveries have been in the offshore Talara and onshore Maranon basins, where 1.4 billion and 970 million barrels, respectively, of recoverable oil have been discovered.

Oil companies have leased at least 41 percent of the Peruvian Amazon for oil and gas drilling and could soon hold 70 percent, including areas that are officially protected for the indigenous people, as more contracts are signed with foreign investors. The current exploration boom is the second to hit this region, following an initial surge of exploration in the 1970s and 1980s.

Sector Organization

Oil production in Peru is run by foreign consortia, with the National Agency of Hydrocarbons (Perupetro) overseeing all exploration and production activities. The Ministry of Energy and Mines also participates in developing planning and policies for the sector. According to Perupetro, 75 percent of Peru’s crude oil output in 2011 was produced by three companies: Argentina’s Pluspetrol, Brazil’s Petrobras, and Peru’s Savia (formerly Petrotech). Due to an intense promotional campaign carried out by Perupetro in recent years, there are more than 50foreign oil companies currently engaged in oil exploration.As of August 2011, Perupetro had 82 hydrocarbons contracts in force; of these 20 pertain to production and 62 to exploration projects.

Not to be confused with Perupetro, Petroperu is a state-owned company founded in 1969, which is engaged in the production, transport, refining, and distribution of petroleum. Petroperu owns Peru’s pipelines and other transportation systems, four of its refineries, and fuel stations.

The bidding round held by Perupetro in late 2011 resulted in 11 new exploration and production contracts. Peru will offer as many as 30 exploration contracts for bidding in the second half of 2012, covering both offshore and Amazon areas.

Exploration and Production

According to EIA estimates, Peru produced 153,800 barrels per day (bbl/d) of total oil in 2011, down slightly from the 158,300 bbl/d produced in 2010, and an increase of 60 percent from the 99,600 bbl/d produced in 2000. According to Perupetro, of the 153,000 bbl/d produced in 2011, 46 percent was crude oil and 54 percent was natural gas liquids (NGL). Peru is a net oil importer of both crude and products as domestic petroleum consumption is increasing and reached 189,000 bbl/d in 2010. Much of Peru’s crude oil imports come from Ecuador.

While many of Peru’s existing oilfields are in decline, unexplored reserves of crude oil and natural gas liquids hold the potential for increased production. According to Perupetro, only 24 percent of Peru’s crude oil currently comes from onshore fields, while almost all NGL production comes from onshore fields. Business Monitor International’s January 2012 forecast projects that Peru’s oil production will more than double over the next five years, from 153,000 bbl/d in 2011 to 350,000 bbl/d in 2016. Perupetro expects oil production to exceed 500,000 bbl/d by 2021, driven by production from new discoveries.

Pipelines

Peru has only one crude oil pipeline, the 621-mile Norperuano, which includes two branches that run from the Ucayali and Maranon basins in the northeastern jungle to the export terminal at Bayovar on the Pacific coast. The pipeline is owned by state-run Petroperu, which is installing additional loops in order to allow transport of extra heavy crude from more distant exploration blocks in the Amazon region. The pipeline has a maximum capacity of 250,000 bbl/d.

Downstream Activities

According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Peru has six oil refineries with a combined crude distillation capacity of 198,950 bbl/d. Spain’s Repsol YPF operates the largest refinery in the country, La Pampilla, located in the capital of Lima. La Pampilla has capacity of 108,000 bbl/d, maintains thermal and catalytic operations, and also has asphalt production capacity. Talara, Peru’s second-largest refinery at 62,000 bbl/d, is owned by Petroperu. It has recently been upgraded with a $1 billion investment, and now has catalytic cracking capacity. Three of the country’s four other refineries are also owned by Petroperu. In Pucallpa, a 3,250-bbl/d refinery is owned by Maple Gas Corp. All four of these smaller refineries have only distillation capacity.

Natural Gas

Peru is self-sufficient in natural gas and began exporting LNG in 2010.

According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Peru had proven natural gas reserves of 12.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2012, the fifth largest reserves in South America. Peru’s main natural gas reserve is the large Camisea project in southeast Peru. Since production began in 2004, Camisea output has grown by an average of 37 percent per year, and it is expected that when site exploration is complete, Peru’s proven reserves will be up by another 318 billion cubic feet (Bcf).

Other new major gas fields include lot 76 in Madre de Dios and Block 58 in the Ucayali basin, both onshore. Lot 76, located in southern Peru, is being explored by Hunt Oil and some estimates suggest this field could be as large as Camisea. Block 58, located in central Peru, was discovered by Petrobras in 2010 and is believed to contain some 1.7 Tcf of natural gas.

Sector Organization

Petroperu negotiates, signs, and supervises license agreements for the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in Peru, in accordance with the objectives, policies, and strategies of the Ministry of Energy and Mines. The major gas companies operating in Peru include Argentina’s Pluspetrol, the U.S.’s Hunt Oil, Spain’s Repsol, South Korea’s SK Corp, Italy’s Tecpetrol, and Algeria’s Sonatrach. Pluspetrol operates the natural gas wells at Camisea, making it the largest hydrocarbons producer in the country.

The distribution of natural gas through pipelines within Peru is controlled by the private consortium Transportadora de Gas Peruano (TGP), made up of Tecgas, Pluspetrol, Hunt Oil, SK Corp, Sonatrach, and Grana y Montero.

Exploration and Production

Peru produced 393 Bcf of gross natural gas in 2010, of which 106 Bcf was reinjected for enhanced oil production and 8 Bcf was vented and flared. Dry natural gas production totaled 255 Bcf in 2010, and 75 percent of the dry gas was domestically consumed.

Peru’s natural gas production has been rising rapidly since 2004, when the Camisea field went onstream. Peru’s domestic demand for natural gas has also risen sharply in recent years, from 30 Bcf in 2004 to 191 Bcf in 2010, driven by government incentives, economic growth, and the growing number of gas-fired electricity plants, which accounted for two-thirds of domestic natural gas consumption in Peru.

However, the rate of natural gas production began exceeding domestic consumption in 2010. By December 2010, Peru’s natural gas production was in excess of 1 Bcf per day, mostly from the Camisea reserve. Business Monitor International projected in its January 2012 report that Peru’s dry natural gas production will almost double from an estimated 265 Bcf in 2011 to 459 Bcf in 2016.

In 2009, unconventional gas was found in the Devonian shale beneath the Santa Rosa 1X well, which was drilled by Maple Energy in its Block 31E. Shale gas has not been previously developed in Peru and Maple Energy is continuing to evaluate the commercial opportunity at Santa Rosa.

Pipelines

There are two pipelines carrying natural gas from the Camisea gas fields. The 336-mile Camisea pipeline terminates at the Pisco port terminal, from which liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) are exported. As the pipeline passes through the Malvinas plant in the Andes Mountains, natural gas liquids (propane and heavier liquids) are separated from the natural gas. The pipeline has a capacity of 450 million cubic feet per day. A second 444-mile pipeline runs from Malvinas along the coast to Lima and Callao for distribution to residential and industrial consumers in the capital city. The pipelines are owned by TGP. Construction of an additional 620-mile Southern Andean natural gas pipeline from Camisea to supply Cuzco, Puno, and Arequipa in the Andes, as well as Moquetada and Tacua on the coast, is expected to begin construction in 2012.

Downstream Activities

The pipeline consortium TGP pays royalties to the national government for the distribution rights of natural gas in Peru. Pluspetrol runs a gas fractionation plant at Pisco which produces propane, butane, diesel, and naphtha from the gas fields of Camisea, with half of these liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) being consumed domestically. The major expansion of Peru’s natural gas production in 2010 has been followed by more infrastructure investment. In October 2010, the Ministry of Energy and Mines and the regional government of Cusco signed an agreement for the construction of a new LPG fractionation plant in Peru’s southeastern region. In March 2012, the Peruvian government announced that the construction of this new LPG plant in the Cuzco area would be completed within two years, with its output to be dedicated to meeting local demand.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

Peru began exporting LNG from its Melchorita plant, South America’s first natural gas liquefaction plant, in June 2010. In February 2012, Peru exported 15 Bcf (307,580 metric tons) of LNG according to LNG World News. Melchorita is owned by the PeruLNG consortium, made up of Hunt Oil at 50 percent, SK Energy at 20 percent, Repsol at 20 percent, and Marubeni at 10 percent. The plant currently has capacity of 215 Bcf per year, and a second and possibly a third train are planned to be added within the next four to five years. According to Cedigaz, in 2010, Peru shipped LNG cargoes to Spain, the United States, Mexico, China, and South Korea. However, the majority of its exports are contracted to go to the LNG terminal in Manzanillo, Mexico. Although the Manzanillo terminal and 186-mile pipeline were completed in September 2011, the need to dredge the harbor for shipping delayed the project until March 2012. The first cargo of LNG was shipped to Manzanillo on March 10, 2012.

Peru – Analysis – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Bill Clinton created his Sister Souljah moment. Mitt Romney keeps ducking his. This says something disturbing about the current political environment. It says something even more disturbing about the soon-to-be Republican nominee.

My point here is not Clinton-good/Romney-bad. Both men were acting in what they perceived to be their political self-interest — a tendency, it turns out, common among politicians.

For Clinton, rebuking the rap singer for comments suggesting that blacks should “kill white people” was less courageous than calculated.

It was June 1992, with the general election looming and polls showing the Democrat running third against George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. Clinton chose the moment — Jesse Jackson Jr.’s Rainbow Coalition conference, to which Souljah had been invited — to stage his declaration of independence.

As my late colleague David Broder observed at the time, “The gamble Clinton is taking is that more white Americans will be impressed by his ‘standing up’ to Jackson than black Americans are repelled by his ‘disrespect’ to the Rainbow Coalition leader.”

Romney’s calculus has been consistently the opposite: that the risk of alienating powerful party figures or constituencies exceeds the benefit of repositioning himself, if not in the reasonable center, then closer to it. His Souljah deficit underscores both the extreme nature of the current Republican Party and Romney’s continuing tenuous position within it.

The first ducked moment came in March, after conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh called Georgetown law student Sandra Fluke a “slut” and a “prostitute.”

Romney’s response was decidedly, disappointingly mild. “It’s not the language I would have used,” he said, leaving open the question of what words, exactly, the candidate considered appropriate. Loose woman? Harlot?

With the light at the end of the primary tunnel, Romney could have used the opportunity to try to reassure female voters and narrow the gender gap with President Obama.

Instead, he flinched from calling out a powerful conservative. Limbaugh was too scary to take on.

As, it would seem, are the party’s homophobic social conservatives, which brings us to the messy episode of the hiring and hasty departure of foreign policy spokesman Richard Grenell.

As bizarre as it feels to be saying this in 2012, Romney deserves credit for hiring someone who is openly gay. This ought to be a no-brainer, except that we are talking about the Republican Party, which is more comfortable with gay supporters in the closet than out.

According to the New York Times, when Grenell, at the end of the interviewing process, volunteered to Romney aides that he is gay, senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom waved him off. “It’s not an issue for us,” Fehrnstrom said.

Except that it clearly is an issue for others in the party. “Romney picks out & loud gay as a spokesman,” tweeted Bryan Fischer of the American Family Association. “If personnel is policy, his message to the pro-family community: drop dead.” Conservative activist Gary Bauer termed the hiring an “unforced error” because Grenell “has been an outspoken advocate of redefining normal marriage.”

Which raises the question: Given the predictable, disgusting backlash to Grenell’s hiring, how could the campaign have no plan to deal with it other than shove Grenell into the background — the closet? — until the furor died down?

Indeed, for all of his posturing about managerial expertise, Romney flubbed his due diligence on Grenell, who had to insta-scrub his Twitter account of offensive comments about women’s appearance. Mr. Real Economy, does your team vet new hires?

A more confident candidate, secure in his place within the party, would have had the guts — not to mention the decency — to tell the social conservatives to cut it out. He could have repeated what Fehrnstrom told Grenell — that sexual orientation was a non-issue — and that even Republicans could disagree about same-sex marriage.

Instead, Romney said . . . nothing. His campaign issued a bland statement of support that did not mention the gay elephant in the room. And then it told Grenell to keep quiet.

When he decided to resign instead, at least six top aides called Grenell to persuade him to stay on, the Times reported. But not, apparently, the candidate himself.

Which left Fischer crowing, “It’s a huge win for us in regard to Mitt Romney. Because Mitt Romney has been forced to say, ‘Look, I overstepped my bounds here.’”

Somewhere, Sister Souljah is smiling. Because Romney is doubly hobbled, by the extremeness of his party and the timidity of his own character.

Mitt Romney wimps out on Grenell – The Washington Post

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See also Republican Conundrum

We are pleased to announce that the new issue of the German Law Journal, Review of Developments in German, European & International Jurisprudence is now available at www.germanlawjournal.com.

It is a richly packed issue, indeed. Its Articles section offers contributions on global rulemaking and multinational corporations, Canada’s military engagement in Afghanistan and reflections on the US presidency.

In addition, we are happy to publish a thoughtful symposium on international legal theory, which includes contributions to the 4th Conference of the European Society of International Law (ESIL) in Cambridge in 2011. The symposium, held under the auspices of the International Legal Theory Group within ESIL, brought together scholars who draw on legal theory, political philosophy and international law to map the current state of international legal theorizing.

We are grateful to our authors and to you, our readers, who have been supporting the work of the Journal with so much dedication, interest and inspiration. And, we are, certainly, very grateful to the wonderful group of students at Osgoode Hall and at Washington & Lee without whose help it would not be possible to get the Journal out, month after month, year after year.

Happy Reading!

Russell Miller

Peer Zumbansen

Editors in Chief

The Editors

German Law Journal

www.germanlawjournal.com

–

Peer Zumbansen

Professor of Law / Canada Research Chair

Osgoode Hall Law School, York University, Toronto

Acting Director, Graduate Program (LL.M. & PhD)

Co-Director, European Union Centre of Excellence

Email: PZumbansen@osgoode.yorku.ca

http://ssrn.com/author=109516

Photo Source: “A federal court in Texas ruled to stop a new law on Monday that excluded Planned Parenthood from the Texas Women’s Health Program, which serves about 130,000 low-income women in the state. U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel ruled that the law was unconstitutional. . . After HHS cut off Texas’ Medicaid money, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) promised to make up for the $30 million funding gap and pay for the Women’s Health Program with the state’s own money. But conservative Texas officials have suggested that they would rather end the entire program than allow Planned Parenthood to participate in it,” Laura Bassett, Texas Planned Parenthood Defunding Halted By Federal Judge, Huffington Post, April 30, 2012. Getty file.

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The Republican Conundrum — “The United States cannot move out of history and be at the same time its most authentic contemporary expression.”

—  Mohamed Sid Ahmed, The Kagan Thesis (3) – Beyond Fukuyama and Huntington?, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line No. 602, September 11, 2002.

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Today, I was reading a blog at blogs.worldbank.org, which is written by Donna Barne, and titled, At Spring Meetings, Support for Safety Nets and a More Modern Bank. It is notable, as Barne explained, that the Washington D.C.-based World Bank recently “got the green light to ramp up work on social safety nets in a riskier world at the best-attended World Bank-International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in the last decade.”

A primary goal of their spring meeting was two-fold: Closing the gap on social safety nets, and financial inclusion.

Photo Source: “The Spring Meetings and related events April 16 to 22 highlighted safety nets as a way to protect people from crises and to help “close the gap” in nutrition, gender equity, income and access to jobs”. . . Close the Gap: Safety Nets Work on April 18 brought together high-ranking officials from the Philippines and Brazil, development experts, and basketball stars to discuss, in a live webcast, how safety nets have changed lives in middle and low income countries, and why it’s important for governments to expand their investments in these programs,” Donna Barne, At Spring Meetings, Support for Safety Nets and a More Modern Bank, Blogs.worldbank.org, April 23, 2012.

I found the article interesting, especially in the context of the American Republican Party and its explicit goal of ridding the country of entitlement programs and/or social safety nets and various rights of citizens, such as, for example, Obamacare, Medicare, Medicaid, social security, and gender equality. This is the new Republican Party, which is described by Robert Caro (author of "Master of the Senate," the Pulitzer Prize-winning volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography), in the article entitled, Robert Caro: Republicans Have Made Lawmaking ‘Near Impossible’, as “intractable and it has the votes to stop legislation.” 

Barnes writes,

The Spring Meetings and related events April 16 to 22 highlighted safety nets as a way to protect people from crises and to help “close the gap” in nutrition, gender equity, income and access to jobs. The Development Committee also called on the Bank to continue to look for solutions to the problems of fragile and conflict-affected states, food insecurity and malnutrition. High and volatile food prices are preventing millions of people from escaping poverty and hunger, according to the Bank’s latest Global Monitoring Report, released at the meetings.

Close the Gap: Safety Nets Work on April 18 brought together high-ranking officials from the Philippines and Brazil, development experts, and basketball stars to discuss, in a live webcast, how safety nets have changed lives in middle and low income countries, and why it’s important for governments to expand their investments in these programs. Some 80% of developing countries plan to create or improve safety nets, and this form of social protection is a critical component of the Bank’s new, 10-year Social Protection and Labor Strategy, released April 18.

In terms of the Republican Party, one reasonably suspects that it  supports the goals of the World Bank, and impliedly would support the goal of protecting “people from crises and to help “close the gap” in nutrition, gender equity, income and access to jobs; to name only a few of the issues and programs that they would generally characterize as entitlement programs or safety nets.

In other words, one suspects that the Republican Party probably supports this worthy effort to provide social safety nets for those living in foreign countries.

This is because the Republican Party has long taken pride in economic liberalization or globalization, which (commencing in the 1970s) the antagonists to globalization began to associate with the name of neo-liberalism.

Quoting from an earlier writing (Killion, Modern Chinese Rules of Order, 2007),

In the 1970s and 1980’s, the concept of neo-liberalism (or economic liberalism) begins to emerge with the debt crises in developing countries. In the 1970s, and pursuant to growing interests in international economics, the antagonists of economic liberalism and globalization commence usage of the nomenclature of neo-liberal, while those supporters subscribing to its tenants would rather prefer to themselves as simply libertarians, free marketers or conservatives. Neo-liberalism is also the name often given to the political-economic restructuring or reform programs proposed for developing countries by developed country economists, the IMF and World Bank, and some refer to the structural adjustment programs of the BWIs as simply neo-liberal reforms.

There are few who would doubt Republican Party support for the BWIs (i.e., Bretton Woods Institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank). Additionally, and quoting the earlier mentioned writing (Killion, 2007),

A criticism of neo-liberalism is that it arguably extends the same individual rights to transnational corporations and banks, and moves the rights of property from the status of a social right to that of a fundamental right. The complaint being that Western neo-liberalism treats transnational banks and corporate entities as equal, for instance, to a small farmer in China. The antagonists complain that while neo-liberalism grants significantly more freedom to corporate entities, a problem of neo-liberalism is that, historically, it does not extend the same freedoms to indigents and working people.

What should also be understood is that neo-liberalism necessitates neo-liberal policies and neo-liberal reform, because neo-liberal reforms, generally, encompass privatization, free markets, de-regulation, austerity and comparative advantage.

The problem of this earlier version of neo-liberalism, and its attendant neo-liberal policies, is that harsh criticism alongside debt crises in the 1980s actually necessitated a shift to more people-friendly policies; thereby, the birth of the idea of a more “pragmatic” neo-liberalism.

Photo Source; “These are only a few of the examples of education marginalization that occurs in every country in the world. These types of marginalization could only be addressed with policies that tackle underlying issues such as social inequity, gender disparity, and ethnic/linguistic disadvantages,” Global Education and Economic Downturn, Globalization 101, The Levin Institute – The State University of New York, March 14, 2011; Uganda – © UNESCO/Marc Hofer.

In other words, the previously mentioned tenants of neo-liberalism, who would rather prefer to themselves as libertarians, free marketers or conservatives, arguably have few qualms about protecting the social safety nets of other countries.

A problem is that in the context of the American people caught in the claws and fangs of globalization and its failings (i.e., the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis or global financial crisis), the Republican Party is showing little, if any, compassion for their fellow Americans, such as middle-class Americans and “very poor” Americans.

While the Republican Party, libertarians, free marketers or conservatives are clearly advocates of the earlier mentioned neo-liberal reforms, they admittedly might find the policies of protecting entitlements or social safety nets of other countries as objectionable. This may also be one of the objections of the Republican Party to President Obama’s recent appointment of Jim Yong Kim, Dartmouth president, to head the World Bank.

The seeming target of the new Republican Party and its extremisms on many social issues are vested rights, entitlements and/or social safety nets; such as women’s rights, the right to equal pay for women, fair employment rights, the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, the Affordable Care Act, abortion rights, contraception, the Blunt Amendment, the Family and Medical Leave Act, Planned Parenthood, birth control, and other issues that affect the lives of women, self-deportation of immigrants, education, feeding and housing the “very poor”, and a host of other social concerns.

It is admittedly also possible that the Republican Party may try to move against these new goals of the World Bank by following suit of Texas Governor Rick Perry (R), which means an attempt to terminate these social safety nets by defunding the World Bank, or simply, cutting off U.S. funds for the World Bank.

This, however, is mere speculation, because one also suspects that they will not object to the World Bank bolstering these social safety nets. Granted, they would not be doing so out of altruism or sympathy for poor people, because there is an economic benefit that arises from doing so. This is because developing countries ultimately offer the prize of comparative advantage (i.e., land and/or labor endowments, or simply, cheap land and low wages or cheap non-union labor).

In the end, the new Republican Party and its extremisms will eventually find itself far afield of both mainstream America and the world at large. In a post-Lehman world, for the majority of Americans, they are determined to demonstrate their lack of compassion for those now struggling for survival.

Photo Source: Paul Ryan gave speech on federal budget at Georgetown University; Power Panel: Child Labor and Catholics v. Paul Ryan. Young Turks, April 30, 2012.

This lack of compassion presents a deep-rooted problem for the new Republican Party. As Dave Johnson wrote, “Some say that maybe it is a bad idea to base a political party’s ideology on a belief that altruism, democracy and Christianity are "evil." Others say that maybe it is a bad idea to base a country’s policies on fictional novels rather than science and history.”

Johnson is referring to a Republican ideology born out of the writings of the novelist Ayn Rand, which he characterizes as the “Republican Party’s embrace of Ayn Rand and her cruel philosophy.”  What should concern an unsuspecting public, according to Johnson, “Disciples of Ayn Rand’s philosophy of selfishness now dominate the thinking of the leadership of the conservative movement and the Republican Party.” Demonstrating the seriousness and breath of the problem, he writes,

There is no way around it. Republican budget leader Rep. Paul Ryan says Rand is his guide. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) says Rand’s Atlas Shrugged is his "foundation book." Senator Rand Paul is named after her (or not). Clarence Thomas requires his law clerks to watch The Fountainhead. Fox News promotes Rand. Conservative blogs promote Rand. Glenn Beck has been promoting Rand for years. So has Rush. This isn’t recent, Alan Greenspan lived with the Rand cult and promoted and implemented her ideas.”

Paul Ryan earlier explicitly stated that Rand is his guide, though now in political posturing he is exhibiting trepidation in the face of criticism from the Catholic Church concerning his so-called “faith-based budget” and the treatment of poor and vulnerable persons. Dana Milbank writes,

A week after Ryan’s boast, the bishops sent letters to Congress saying that the Ryan budget, passed by the House, “fails to meet” the moral criteria of the Church, namely its view that any budget should help “the least of these” as the Christian Bible requires: the poor, the hungry, the homeless, the jobless. “A just spending bill cannot rely on disproportionate cuts in essential services to poor and vulnerable persons,” the bishops wrote.

In response to the criticism of Ryan’s so-called “faith-based budget, the good Catholic Republicans just blew off the Catholic Church. On April 26, 2012, at Georgetown University, Ryan actually, though poorly, attempted to defend his budget as the fruit of Catholic teaching. Before inviting him to defend his budget, “A group of 88 Georgetown University faculty and staff members sent a letter to Ryan April 24 outlining their concerns over his ‘misuse of Catholic teaching’ to defend his budget plan.” Jesuit Father Thomas Reese said, “I don’t think he can get away with Catholic social teachings as a cover for his budget cutting.”

Photo and Video Source: “The Truth About GOP Hero Ayn Rand,” Dave Johnson, Concern Over Republican Embrace of the Ayn Rand Poison, Huffington Post, June 10, 2011; See the Video here.

When referring to Ayn Rand’s philosophy, as Johnson observed, “maybe it is a bad idea to base a political party’s ideology on a belief that altruism, democracy and Christianity are ‘evil’.”

Moreover, one would even venture to say that at some point the Republican Party’s extremisms (i.e., the war against women, the war on the poor, the war on immigrants, the war on health care, etc) will dissipate, because the citizenry that now supports its extremisms will eventually withhold their acclamation.

This is because, and showing the folly of their extremisms, as one recent study demonstrates, many Republicans, who are railing against entitlements and/or social safety nets and various rights, are actually in dire needs of the same entitlements and/or social safety nets and rights (i.e., equal pay for women, health care, etc). For instance, in reference to what the study shows, William A. Galston (Brookings Institution) when describing a group of Republicans that he characterizes as “the Disaffected”, wrote,

According to Pew, they are both anti-government and anti-big business. They are social conservatives with a deep antipathy to illegal immigration. But they are also the most financially insecure of all the groups—among Democrats and Independents as well as Republicans—and perhaps for that reason, less averse to a government that extends a helping hand to the downtrodden. For the most part, they are whites with no more than a high school education. Many report personal or family struggles with unemployment.

In other words, it’s not difficult to imagine “the Disaffecteds” also needing a safety net, as they are also “less averse to a government that extends a helping hand to the downtrodden.”

A better example of this tragedy or maybe even an oxymoron in the new Republican ideology might well be the real life example and experiences of Ayn Rand. This is because Paul Ryan’s mentor or guide spent most of her adult life railing against the evils of federal insurance.  In reality, however, and later in life and during a difficult period of money problems and health issues, both Rand and her husband reportedly did receive social security payments and Medicare payments.

In other words, the social safety net was there for both Ayn Rand and her husband in their time of need, as it has always been for many years now to help others – the poor, the hungry, the homeless, the jobless.

For now, however, and as a courtesy of the Republican Party and its ideology and extremisms, America’s social safety net teeters on cliff edge. With that being sad, I will leave the readers of this article to answer for themselves the question of whether altruism, democracy and Christianity are evil?

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See also Republican Conundrum

All Rights Reserved by M. Ulric Killion, 2012.